Chicken Little Cometh
The Sky is Falling!
I heard a “financial expert” on the radio the other night advising listeners to sell their homes immediately and buy them back for “ten cents on the dollar” in the coming depression. I Googled the fellow, one Nick Guarino, and learned that he is best known for claiming that Bill Clinton was responsible for killing 51 people, including Vince Foster and, presumably, Judge Crater. Nonetheless, he has an audience, and I, think, a fair number of non-listeners who share his dismal view of the market. Anything is possible (although I have my doubts about the Vince Foster thing) but before you sell your Greenwich home I suggest that you read the New York Times’ Sunday real estate section and look at the prices of other properties in the Metropolitan area area.
For instance, the Times just profiled Jamaica Hills, a less than 1/2 square mile enclave in Queens. The average house there sits on a 30-foot-by-100-foot lot, has three bedrooms and not much else and sells for $450,000. It’s a forty-minute subway ride to Manhattan, the elementary school accommodates 800 students from 100 different countries speaking 40 different languages. Ten percent of high school graduates continue on to four-year colleges. The town has two parks of 9 and 4 acres, respectively.
Before Greenwich prices collapse the entire eastern seaboard market will precede it. I can show you houses in Byram, our least expensive neighborhood, that cost no more than those in Jamaica Hills, sit on larger lots, provide access to far better schools, beautiful parks and libraries, and have a much smaller tax burden. Most people, I suggest, would prefer to live here, rather than there, and as long as that holds true, as long as NYC keeps drawing young people from around the country who meet, marry, have children and then look around for a better place to raise a family, Greenwich will look like a good value.
Mianus Sewers
A reader has inquired whether the installation of sewers in her neighborhood has increased the value of her home and, if so, by how much. I seem to recall that Bud Dealy once researched this question and concluded that a ten percent increase was the norm. I trust Bud (and I’m too lazy to do my own research) so I’m inclined to agree with that figure. Of course for certain lots the ability to hook up to the sewer may mean the difference between having a buildable site and having very nice parkland, or a five instead of three bedroom home. In that case, a sewer hookup becomes very valuable indeed.
As an aside, there exists such a thing as an “engineered septic system” which, as I understand it, uses more active treatment techniques than the standard, passive, tank-and-leach field approach and thus consumes less than half the land required for the latter. Massachusetts and California approve their use; our own health Department says it has never approved one because no one has asked. That doesn’t mean you couldn’t use the technology, assuming you satisfied the right people that your proposed system worked. I suspect that there are a number of potential building lots in town which are presently unbuildable due to septic field constraints that, if served by an engineered system, could be built upon. That would dismay the neighbors, no doubt, but might be welcome news to the owners themselves.
Consigned to the Dustbin of History
Riverside’s first modular home, on Indian Head Road, has succumbed to the wrecker’s ball. The new owner of the home next door (77 Indian Head) bought this lot, too and has set about restoring some of the original grounds. I hated the house when it was delivered on site; I won’t miss it now.
Beating a Dead Horse Department
These are homes that all came to market recently and sold immediately: 11 Turner Drive, $1.425; 100 Sawmill Lane, $1.675; 24 Frost Lane, $4.1; 128 Weaver Street, $1.695; 107 Parsonage Road, $1.625. Which demonstrates, yet again, that there is a strong demand out there for houses that are fairly priced. Most Greenwich residents are not unfamiliar with the business world and would never consider pricing a product based on what some goofball in sales “wanted” or “needed.” The same market discipline that dictates the price of everything else for sale in our economy also applies to houses. So if someone has let his emotions dictate your home’s price, do what you’d do in business: fire yourself.
I heard a “financial expert” on the radio the other night advising listeners to sell their homes immediately and buy them back for “ten cents on the dollar” in the coming depression. I Googled the fellow, one Nick Guarino, and learned that he is best known for claiming that Bill Clinton was responsible for killing 51 people, including Vince Foster and, presumably, Judge Crater. Nonetheless, he has an audience, and I, think, a fair number of non-listeners who share his dismal view of the market. Anything is possible (although I have my doubts about the Vince Foster thing) but before you sell your Greenwich home I suggest that you read the New York Times’ Sunday real estate section and look at the prices of other properties in the Metropolitan area area.
For instance, the Times just profiled Jamaica Hills, a less than 1/2 square mile enclave in Queens. The average house there sits on a 30-foot-by-100-foot lot, has three bedrooms and not much else and sells for $450,000. It’s a forty-minute subway ride to Manhattan, the elementary school accommodates 800 students from 100 different countries speaking 40 different languages. Ten percent of high school graduates continue on to four-year colleges. The town has two parks of 9 and 4 acres, respectively.
Before Greenwich prices collapse the entire eastern seaboard market will precede it. I can show you houses in Byram, our least expensive neighborhood, that cost no more than those in Jamaica Hills, sit on larger lots, provide access to far better schools, beautiful parks and libraries, and have a much smaller tax burden. Most people, I suggest, would prefer to live here, rather than there, and as long as that holds true, as long as NYC keeps drawing young people from around the country who meet, marry, have children and then look around for a better place to raise a family, Greenwich will look like a good value.
Mianus Sewers
A reader has inquired whether the installation of sewers in her neighborhood has increased the value of her home and, if so, by how much. I seem to recall that Bud Dealy once researched this question and concluded that a ten percent increase was the norm. I trust Bud (and I’m too lazy to do my own research) so I’m inclined to agree with that figure. Of course for certain lots the ability to hook up to the sewer may mean the difference between having a buildable site and having very nice parkland, or a five instead of three bedroom home. In that case, a sewer hookup becomes very valuable indeed.
As an aside, there exists such a thing as an “engineered septic system” which, as I understand it, uses more active treatment techniques than the standard, passive, tank-and-leach field approach and thus consumes less than half the land required for the latter. Massachusetts and California approve their use; our own health Department says it has never approved one because no one has asked. That doesn’t mean you couldn’t use the technology, assuming you satisfied the right people that your proposed system worked. I suspect that there are a number of potential building lots in town which are presently unbuildable due to septic field constraints that, if served by an engineered system, could be built upon. That would dismay the neighbors, no doubt, but might be welcome news to the owners themselves.
Consigned to the Dustbin of History
Riverside’s first modular home, on Indian Head Road, has succumbed to the wrecker’s ball. The new owner of the home next door (77 Indian Head) bought this lot, too and has set about restoring some of the original grounds. I hated the house when it was delivered on site; I won’t miss it now.
Beating a Dead Horse Department
These are homes that all came to market recently and sold immediately: 11 Turner Drive, $1.425; 100 Sawmill Lane, $1.675; 24 Frost Lane, $4.1; 128 Weaver Street, $1.695; 107 Parsonage Road, $1.625. Which demonstrates, yet again, that there is a strong demand out there for houses that are fairly priced. Most Greenwich residents are not unfamiliar with the business world and would never consider pricing a product based on what some goofball in sales “wanted” or “needed.” The same market discipline that dictates the price of everything else for sale in our economy also applies to houses. So if someone has let his emotions dictate your home’s price, do what you’d do in business: fire yourself.
posted by Chris Fountain at 9:08 AM
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